However, the analysis and views expressed in this report are of the strategic foresight group only and do not in any way. The scientific field is weakly organized and there is a lack of theoretical progress. The strategic foresight in business management program is a comprehensive introduction to the approaches and tools of strategic foresight. This foresight glossary is a guide to the concepts and terms commonly used in the singapore government foresight space. Strategic foresight primer committee of the regions. In sum, foresight helps to get a better and systemic understanding of change in the world around you and your organization in relation to the course of plans of your organization. The program is based on scientific approaches to foresight and scenario work. Given the need for a systemic approach to strategic planning, the paper proposes a. In broad terms, strategic foresight can be practiced on three levels.
This is marked by complexity, flux and contradictions in all aspects of the operating environments within which the organisations function. The idea for this strategic foresight primer was born out of. Strategic foresight calls for a systematic analysis of identifying. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight. Simply put, a strategic plan is the formal ized road map that describes how your organization executes the chosen strategy. Strategic foresight was launched so the emergency management community can seek to understand how the world is changing, and how those changes may affect the future of emergency management. Whats your futuresix steps for gaining strategic foresight page 2 scanning the second step is scanning. Yet many of the ideas of strategic foresight are quite different from the way in which most governments operate today. Strategic foresight is a collaborative effort of the emergency management community facilitated by the federal emergency management agency fema. It is an important effort at ensuring that as a community, we speak the same language, and understand the context in which we use some of these terms. Strategic foresight is a bland term for a great idea. Guidelines for strategic foresight social technologies, february 2007. Much of the information needed for strategic reflections comes from open source intelligence.
Foresight competence and the strategic thinking of. Scanning is the process of looking internally and externally to identify what is on the horizon that may impact the organization relative to the issues you framed in the prior step. At its best, the process allows policymakers to explore possible futures, and pursue policies that are most likely to bring them to fruition. Strategic foresight is required whenever there is a high degree of uncertainty surrounding changes to the relevant future context. Strategic planning always includes analysis, but it may or may not involve serious foresight on the way to developing a plan, or taking an action. It produces scenarios and policy concepts that have been discussed in the united nations security council, parliament of india, the european parliament, oxford university. To be the best big picture guide to 21st century foresight. Using strategic foresight to design the future customer. First, strategic foresight, a discipline i describe in more detail, provides the vitally needed mindsets and frameworks required to plan in uncertainty.
This strategic foresight analysis 2015 update report is the second iteration of the strategic foresight analysis sfa effort and follows closely behind the release of the first framework for future alliance operations ffao as a contribution to the allied command transformation act long term military transformation ltmt programme. Foresight workshop how to guide foresight workshop how. The value of strategic foresight presidential transition 2016. Maximizing the power of strategic foresight washington. The thesis concludes that the foresight process had.
Strategic foresight involves broadening the menu of policy options, and taking into account future scenarios that might affect todays decisions. The publication of this new manual is especially welcome in that it shows how an. Two components are organically linked to strategic foresight. Pdf entrepreneurship, innovation and strategic foresight. Risks and preparing for them to futureproof policies. Eight elements of strategic planning from success to. This article introduces the foresight competency model, which addresses the basic question of what one ought to be able to do as a professional futurist. The ability to think strategically sparks new ideas and future business propositions that are the lifeblood of longterm success, but many ceos and senior executives continuously struggle to look past the. Yorkovich the tool whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. Strategic foresight analysis sfa north africa and the. Strategic intelligence stratint pertains to the collection, processing, analysis, and dissemination of intelligence that is required for forming policy and military plans at the national and international level. Jan 20, 2017 having served for many years as a senior official in dod, i know the importance of understanding the potential effects of future events. Five strategic foresight tools applied to business modelling the five strategic foresight tools that we use are based on our experiences as.
Strategic foresight group sfg is a think tank based in india that works on global issues. The benefits of strategic foresight planning kreischer. By taking a longterm, proactive approach to thinking about potential futures, lessons are learned about what is wanted and not wanted in time to still do something about it, rather than only having the option to be reactive, as only what is imagined can be created. Know the difference between a fact and an assumption 3. Strategic foresight is not about better predictions of the future. In this sense, strategic foresight is fundamentally different from the notion of five or 10 year plans. At the same time, practical application of government foresight in strategic. This study investigates how entrepreneurs and innovators engage the future, and it reflects on how strategic foresight also called futures studies can contribute to innovation and entrepreneurship. This online book is the most comprehensive intro to general futures thinking and professional foresight practice available on the web. While strategic planning is a vital competency for todays leaders as they craft a vision for the future, an equally important leadership competency is strategic foresight to anticipate how this future might unfold.
Five strategic foresight tools to enhance business model. Fc governance onion single slide, 2015 one page pdf image showing the relationship of governance to management to operations. Strategic foresight is a set of methods, tools, technologies and actions, which provide an accurate description of both the current and future business environment of an organi sation. Planning considers a multitude of factors in the present environment, measures them and then extrapolates the data into the future. Highlights from the strategic foresight initiative. Thinking about the future, by andy hines and peter bishop, distills the expertise of three dozen senior foresight professionals into a set of essential guidelines for carrying out successful strategic foresight. A thorough strategic planning exercise outlines the companys main direction while at the same time defining its needs in terms of leadership quality and in terms of financing. Nevertheless, there are three areas, which are defined for each system. Key elements of thinking strategically nader seyed kalali1 faculty of management, university of tehran, iran mansoor momeni faculty of management, university of tehran, iran elham heydari faculty of management, allameh tabatabai university, iran abstract strategic thinking is one of the most important capabilities which managers. Unlike management, the leadership relationship cannot be delegated or automated. Strategic foresight is a planningoriented discipline related to futures studies, the study of the future. Whats the difference between strategic planning and strategic foresight. This can be a general feel of change or an understanding of specific causal relationships. The book is written in understandable, accessible language.
Instead, strategic foresight is about better preparedness for different futures that are all possible and plausible. Strategic thinking emphasizes the need to balance todays performance with future opportunity in order to manage risk and navigate through the uncertainty of the business landscape. There is a whole toolbox of qualitative foresight tools, that range from horizon scanning to systems dynamics to scenario planning, among various options. To effectively spot new trends, strategic foresight teams need to have a much wider range of information sources than. The workshop is led and facilitated by ruben nelson, executive director, foresight canada. Strategic foresight enables leaders to ask better questions about the future, make strategic choices explicit and support the discovery, design and consideration of more and better options for action. This is a practical field guide to foresight and foresight tools for leaders in business, the public sector and ngos, to aid their practice in strategy, decision making and change.
This declaration is a concise summary of the overall effect the government wishes to achieve with the national security strategy. It seems that every business has a strategic planning process and if you dont. Foresight is the umbrella term for those innovative strategic planning, policy formulation and solution design methods that dont predict or forecast the future, but. Foresight is a strategic thinking capability, so the use of foresight methodologies occurs at this first stage of the strategy development process that is, the use of foresight methodologies seeks to expand the perception of the range of strategic options available to an organisation. Aug 25, 2008 strategic foresight strategic foresight is the capacity that emerges in organisations when people whose foresight capacities are overt, work together to build strategic processes that take a long view. Bishop graduate program in futures studies, university of houston, 4800 calhoun road, 110 cameron building, houston, tx 772046020, usa. Technology foresight tool for future skills needs identification and contributors to the skills technology foresight guide. Reasons for implementing a strategic foresight system. A quick and clean guide to creating foresight by richard a k lum, strategic foresight. Review the four steps model for developing foresight. Chapter on the foundations of the popular strategic foresight class created and taught by the author within the mba in design strategy at california college of the arts, san francisco. Therefore, leadership is a relationship between the leader and the led. Building on the discussions at the previous sfa workshops in cadiz and budapest, the aim of this workshop was. Holder of the chair of strategic foresight at the conservatoire national des.
He is a also a canadian pioneer of serious futures research and strategic foresight. Pdf strategic foresight process improvements for the. Since strategic foresight is all about futureoriented insights, it should always be considered a key concept of any strategic planning endeavour. Elements of national security strategy atlantic council.
Whether this exercise is performed by the ownermanager, the successor, the board of directors, or a management committee, the exercise comprises eight elements. In a world of neverending change, leaders must elevate above the battlefield and retain alignment with strategic purpose. In a business context, a more actionoriented approach has become well known as corporate foresight. Foresight framework to analyze the hun mods strategic foresight process, confirming those fi ndings with poppers methods categories. Elements of a strategic plan a plan spells out where an organization is going over the next year or more and how it is going to get there. Professional foresight books a longer list 2020 foresight. Jan 20, 2017 the value of forecasting is clear and is directly related to its ability to accurately predict events of concern to decision makers. Fema urban search and rescue teams, along with dhs partners, conduct searches in neighborhoods. Practical ways to utilize this information in daily foresight work. Skip the strategic foresight process and go straight to writing a strategic plan characteristics of the person doing a strategic foresight 1. Strategic foresight is about combining methods of futures work with those of strategic management. Below, we elaborate on the five strategic foresight methods that are taught in the class and explain how they are applied for bmi. The foresight guide a big picture guide to the 21st century. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in.
Adviser on strategic foresight to the european political strategy. Cost of n c on water c s m e strategic foresight group. Bishop graduate program in futures studies, university of houston, 4800 calhoun road. Implement strategic foresight with elements of the us army. Sfg has worked with governments and national institutions of 60 countries from around the world.
Exploring futures the houston way andy hines, peter c. Second in a twopart series elements of a strategic plan. Some futurists prefer to be called foresight practitioners, and the two terms are used interchangeably in this paper. Martin bakule, gregg cornelius, nijhawan dinesh, bernd dworschak, anastasia fetsi, mihaela ghi. The benefits of strategic foresight planning kreischer miller. Become familiar with the practice of strategic foresight and the field of futures studies. The book holds that decision makers should imagine multiple possibilities and that predicting futures is less useful than shaping better futures. While subtle, there is a distinction between vision and foresight. Understand the era we are in certain or uncertain, slow changes or fast ones 2. John kamenskys well written blog makes clear that strategic foresight can help in this effort, and he suggests how to make strategic foresight useful in solving government problems. This article offers leaders elements of the us armys operational art model to easily apply when looking long and acting shortterm.
A conceptual system of leadership for change michael maccoby, phd, tim scudder, cpa there is only one irrefutable definition of a leader. In one sense, it is merely an extension of good policymaking. Strategic foresight efforts at both the broad contextual and sectorspecific levels can interlink and reinforce each other as part of an ongoing system of integrating futures thinking into policymaking. Championing exponential, evo devo, and evidencebased thinking. There has perhaps never been a time in human history where strategic foresight is more needed. Leadership of organisations are currently faced by what are termed post normal times. There has perhaps never been a time in human history when strategic foresight is more needed, says futurist andy hines in the introduction to his new book, thinking about the future. Ultimately, strategic foresight aspires to equip governments and societies with the capacity to constantly explore and prepare for the future in order to navigate, adapt, and shape the future through better policies. Strategic foresight deserves to be widely read and discussed. Strategic foresight also offers the opportunity to influence the future. Overview foresight is the ability to anticipate and lead change. Strategic foresight in business management aalto ee.
This article is based on content presented at the strategic foresight summit 2018, organized earlier this year by futures platform. Guidelines for strategic foresight edited by andy hines and peter bishop is the essential handbook for every aspiring analyst and, students of strategic foresight. The contents of this document do not necessarily represent the official policies of the department of homeland security or the federal emergency management agency. What you learn here will help you coach and inspire those around you, as well as advance your own efforts in strategic foresight and innova on. Strategic foresight analysis 20 report 3 introduction strategic foresight is the ability to create and sustain a variety of high quality forward views and to apply the emerging insights in organisationally useful ways. Strategic foresight and government to bind themselves into rigid positions. Strategic foresight and rapid reponse group northern. For one, resultsbased management rbm demands an enhanced cohe1. A brief overview of strategic foresight workshop slides for. The forest service strategic foresight and rapid response group will enhance strategic foresight in the forest service and its partners through a program of applied futures research, communication and science delivery, and spanning boundaries between the futures community and the natural resource community. Strategic foresight advice should be broadly based, and wherever possible backed up by empirical evidence, so that it can be contested and debated by others in the policy domain. We require a global budget to underpin these agreements, with resources raised from future decrease in military expenditure, increase of development partnership commitments, and the consideration of new and creative sources of revenue. The value of strategic foresight is less obvious because its benefits, such as enhanced capacity to perceive change, are indirect and less readily measured.
It helps organizations construct images of plausible, possible, and preferable futures based on a formal study of change. Strategic foresight october 2019 strategic foresight for. Not a report a carefully designed and purposeful intervention strategic foresight is a learning process. Crafting strategy in an uncertain world, hugh courtney 2001 a brief history of the future, oona strathern 2007 a field guide to lies and statistics, daniel levitin 2016 accelerate. Strategic foresight is a way of getting a perspective of what the future holds and working backward to determine what steps need to be taken today in an effort to experience a preferred future tomorrow. Analysts and decision makers can use nine different strategic foresight techniques to anticipate the outcome s of struggles in such places as syria or the. Nine techniques for business and intelligence analysis.
Strategic foresight group expresses its gratitude to the swedish international development cooperation agency sida for supporting this project. Strategic foresight is an element of futurology and a concept under the strategic planning umbrella. Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice note for the phd course strategic foresight in engineering andersen, per dannemand. The european commission support for the production of this publication does not constitute an endorsement of the contents which reflects the views only of the. Strategic foresight in business management tools for creating strategic and competitive advantage. A consideration of possible futures alternative futures and of probable futures forecasts, predictions is important to developing a preferred future plan. It is used to predict possible changes in the environment in order to minimize potential risks and capitalise on opportunities. As we noted, in a vuca world accurate prediction is an illusion. Strategic foresight research aims to enable resilience over time and to meet the needs of government and society, by identifying. Linking strategic foresight attitudes and activities aids leader to integrate the long and shortterm. An emerging field with a rich tradition introductory paper for special issue corporate foresight technological forecasting and social change, 2015 by rene rohrbeck aarhus university, business and social sciences, department of management, bartholins alle 10, 8000 aarhus c, denmark.
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